Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Surviving the market - take plenty of water!

Forbes has a good article out on the state of the market captioned Commercial Real Estate: Big Troubles, Small Bailout. The gist is that there is a lot of potential trouble facing the market and government will not be the solution.

My favorite quote from the story is this one:

California billionaire and Colony Capital Chief Executive Tom Barrack talked with Forbes in July about the struggle for survival in a downturn. "The object of the drill for everyone in commercial real estate--and this is everyone in the world--is just get to the other side of Death Valley. If you can make it to the other side of Death Valley, there's hope."
So how do you get to the other side of Death Valley? Plenty of water. Water in this real estate market means a different type of liquidity: cash or access to it. And that is easier said than done. There are people who levered a ton and may pay the price. There are companies that supposedly have the liquid and are sipping very very slowing from the canteen, reserving that cash for the right time. The hard part of the equation is lenders. TALF has not been the answer. If I were the guy in charge I would have jump started the commercial market by backstopping losses after a certain point, but I guess people smarter than me had other ideas or other ways to spend the money. (See here and here for opposing viewpoints.) I guess that's why I am not in DC.

2 comments:

CountingSheep said...

David, speaking of Forbes, what is up with them ranking Chicago has the most stressful city in the US?

http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/15/stress-cities-ten-forbeslife-cx_md_0915cities.html

David Stejkowski said...

That's why I live an hour out of town. I love visiting the city, but living in the country has its advantages.

 
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