Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Never bet against Goldman Sachs

That isn't a bad credo to have. Here's an interesting post on a Reuters blog about Goldman shedding assets, writing down real estate investments and apparently hedging on their loans. Also not surprisingly, they appear to be using "'cash instruments as well as derivatives' to reduce some of the firm’s commercial mortgage exposure."

Yes, they are taking the bet on CRE just like the residential market, figuring that the commercial market will follow suit with high amounts of default. And if it is wrong, having written down value, it can write the value back up. Not a bad business if you can have it and get government funds to bail you out to boot.

P.S.: Real Capital Analytics says $2.2 trillion of CRE is at risk of default because those properties are worth less than they were up to five years ago. Thats...uhhh....a big number if correct. (H/T @RetailTraffic on Twitter.)

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