If you read the comments you'll see some discussions about single properties such as the St. Regis in California. But hotel troubles have been a macro issue, what with no money to lend, RevPAR down and business and leisure travel decreasing.
Just like the original version of the Game of Life, the experts, according to this story, anticipate a "day of reckoning." Some may end up at the Poor Farm while others go to Millionaire Acres. According to Morris Lasky, the CEO of Lodging Unlimited here in Chicago:
“Lenders have been holding off, hoping that industry conditions would get better. They haven’t,” Lasky said. “We could see close to half the hotels in California go back to lenders. When the market gets that bad, then you can say that we’re at the bottom. This foreclosure phenomenon is not a matter of if, only when. And the moment is getting closer.”Others think pain will not until for at least a year, and will last so long as we have a jobless recovery, which could be the way we go. 2011 is what people there said as far as hotel deal flow goes. I think it could be a little sooner but I am no expert.
All this makes you think everyone will spin the wrong number, meaning Poor Farm. Who doesn't? The eventual buyers who get good deals with reasonable loans. But that could take a while. But even if this cycle is the worst the experts have seen, it all turns around eventually. Just as with every other cycle, the people who buy low will be the ones at Millionaire Acres. (On a personal note, I hope to take advantage and do some traveling at cut rates!)