Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Is CRE okay, a ticking time bomb or a lifetime opportunity?

That is what some people seem to be saying to Congress, even as the major banks are repaying TARP money to get the Feds off their backs.

I am not making any predictions. But we know this: tons of loans are coming due. Special servicers are just trying to hold on, often by granting short-term extensions. Refi money isn't there for many deals, and when it is the LTVs aren't great, meaning capital calls or mezz debt. (Can you say Barry Sternlicht?)

The question is whether the bleeding will remain stanched until things turn around or whether the stiches will burst and we will have Banking Crisis #2 for the Obama administration. Optimists say we're good and that current measures will work; pessimists say the worst is yet to come, especially since printing more money is going to be a problem. Vultures are supposed to be waiting to pounce, but there's a disconnect on some asset pricing that still hasn't settled yet. (I think Mr. Sternlicht even talked about 20 caps in a worst case scenario...wow! Check out Deal Junkie to see the interview)

Sorry if you wanted a prediction. The crystal ball just isn't working. The only thing that is certain is that we're in for some very interesting times.

1 comments:

workhard said...

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