Monday, March 30, 2009

Stimulus: a possible help. Why?

Spot on analysis here on whether stimulus will really help commercial real estate.

It could help because it will improve fundamentals, employment and economic growth, which could help the office and apartment sectors., and maybe the retail sector if people start spending money again But liquidity has and remains the big issue. So says Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate:

"If the Geithner plan works, which is a big if, what you'll see is that lending will come unstuck," Green says. However, he adds, "If banks start lending again, that doesn't mean that commercial real estate is out of the woods because there's an issue with what's happened to property valuations."
Bingo. All this spending may not a direct impact on CRE, but there could be an indirect impact. Of course, there is one thing that an indirect impact takes: time. And with loans coming due by the bushel, is that something we have right now?