Monday, September 22, 2008

From overbought to oversold?

A couple of years ago, we were all riding a crazy, insane wave of deals that no rational person thought could go on forever. Confidence was at an all-time high.

Just as we had the highest of highs, now we see the lowest of lows. Record optimism has turned into record pessimism, or so says the latest DLA Piper State of the Market survey.

But let's think about this: is this any less insane than where we were a few years ago? Some say yes. Take this Business Week post comparing what is going on to a run at the bank. Just as we may have overvalued some properties and mortgage pools, are we now over-discounting them? It is a thought-provoking comment, at least to me.

I'm still torn about the bailout being proposed. Very smart people tell us that without it we could be back in the 1930s, but, at the risk of being political here, I've always been of the mindset that government involvement generally makes things more costly and less efficient. Here's a rational post that I found interesting. And the average Joe is apparently wary about this, too.

One thing I know is that the lawyers should, at the end of the day, make out all right. I keep hearing about some tightening of the belt, but the smarter law firms are keeping the bench ready for when this all hashes out. Of course, I thought that would be how long ago?


Christopher B. Kubler, CCIM said...

When everyone says the market can't get any worse, it's the time to buy. There are some spectacular prices out there for the brave, even in my market of Washington DC, where we are relatively insulated from economic downturn thanks to the presence of the Federal Government.

David Stejkowski said...

Isn't that the truth? The opportunistic folks with cash could conceivably make a killing. Right now it seems to be a waiting game, but with Lehman's portfolio coming to market it could get interesting quickly if there is enough cash and credit out there.