Thursday, August 21, 2008

Shock of the day - CRE prices continue to drop

So, what gave you the clue, Holmes?

Seriously, you want empirical date to back that up, so here it comes from our friends at Moody's:

The [REAL Commercial Property Price] index fell 3.3 percent from May, and was down 9.6 percent from the year-ago level.
(Courtesy of Traffic Court.)

With money tight and cash waiting for a bottom, we're bound to see declines continuing. This is no news. The word was a 15% correction and we are not there yet. Now, if Lehman like deals are in the fire, that could lower an average price (since the buyer might pick up deals on the cheap), but subsequent flips may also have a little more positive.

As I discussed with Gary Cichon, the president of River West National Title, this morning, the deal pipeline is there. It is really a matter of getting to the closing. And a combination of factors is holding that pipeline up. I honestly don't think that happens for a lengthy period. Too many people have to eat, so at some point the correction ends. The only real questions are when and at what level. I don't, interestingly, see fundamentals plummeting. But the business guys might know more about that.

0 comments:

 
-