Monday, April 14, 2008

Multiple bottoms in the market? Financial Terrorism? Interesting analysis

Some analysts are saying that the real estate market is at its worst since the 1980s (ah, the RTC days) and are predicting there may be "multiple bottoms" over the next 12-36 months.


Just when things start to look better, another financial bomb explodes on Wall Street. The shock waves might keep real estate managers and investors reeling for years to come, experts say.

“It's like terrorism,” said Jack Foster, managing director and head of Franklin Templeton Real Estate Advisors, a real estate fund of funds firm in New York.

I'm no analyst, but I don't buy that. First, I'm not sure this is the worst we've seen in 20 years, and back then of course commercial property was way overbuilt. Now? Not so much, with some exceptions.

And while most institutional investors are cutting back on buying at the moment, the article states that money is being raised to buy raw land for development or for opportunistic investing. Smart calls.

And FWIW, my friends in the legal biz who have been very slow lately are starting to see a little more work come in. Remember, there is often lag from deal people to lawyers while initial tire kicking is going on.

From Pensions and Investments, via Deal Junkie.