Wednesday, April 30, 2008

A 6.6 cap = a bad market. How times have changed....

Boy, have they. Retail Traffic has a great story about insitutional investors hedging their bets in 2008.

The thoughts from ING Clarion, are that the days of cap rate compression are finally over and that investors are no longer deploying capital indiscriminately. Gee, what gave you the clue, Holmes?

Here's the good stuff. The crystal ball from ING is that this is probably another V-shaped downturn, with values bottoming at a 6.6 cap (remember the days of 9s and 10s, anyone?) in Q3 and turning around in 2009.

I know that you are only talking a 60 bp change in rates, but when they are that low those rates could mean big dollars on huge assets. I wonder how they reconcile the turn with a predicted rise in effective retail rents of only 3% over the next three years? Is it because fundamentals are still good and the downturn is credit and consumer economy based? It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.