Friday, January 4, 2008

A 40% drop = a return to normalcy? Yes.

According to this story, Jones Lang LaSalle is reporting that annual US real estate investment volume may decrease by 40% in 2008 from 2007 numbers. I'm sure some folks will look at this headline and start writing that the sky is falling.

In a word, el-wrongo. (I know, that's not a word, but I like the sound of it.) The point is this:

The volume will seem “sluggish” but “it is still a very healthy transaction pace”....While 2008 figures are expected to be below 2006 and 2007 numbers, 2008 volume is still expected to be more than the average annual volumes of 2002 through 2006.
Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding! Am I saying the world is perfect? Heck no! No one is. As the story says, there's a ton of very aggressive and relatively short-term financing sitting out there, but no one is really expecting a ton of foreclosures like you are seeing on the residential side. The real key here is this: we are back to where things were before we all -- buyers, sellers, lenders and, of course, their respective lawyers -- started running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

Now if you will excuse me, I need to keep a resolution and finish my non-fat yogurt breakfast and hop on the elliptical while watching all the fallout from the Iowa caucuses.