Wednesday, October 17, 2007

More slowdown and lower price predictions

Yup. And believe it or not, I'm still quite happy about it. The Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP agree with the herd: prices will decline and lending underwriting standards will tighten. If you are a buyer, 2008 might be a very good year. If you must sell, then...not so much. PWC hit it right on the head: investors who went overboard may have some headaches. I think those who didn't over-lever deals and buy at extreme cap rates won't.

And here's an interesting quote from the Business Week story: "The report surveyed more than 600 investors, developers, property company representatives, lenders, brokers and real estate consultants. Most believe real estate investments will outperform U.S. stock and bond returns next year." (Emphasis added.) Now of course this is coming from within the business so it may be optimistic, but I would not be at all shocked if this were true. It is also a sign that the real pros do not see a crash in the works.

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